The 2026 season, numbers first
What is happening right now, told with the engine ahead of the opinion. The mechanism never changes to suit the result: the odds for each Grand Prix are published BEFORE it is run, and the contrast with the real result afterwards, hits and misses alike. A model that only shows its hits is not a model, it is advertising. The season readings that can lean on a measurement live here too: what new regulations do to the grid, what an engine upgrade is actually worth, and where the model got it wrong when it did. The running scoreboard for every prediction has its own page and grows on its own every other Sunday.
10 articles
Russell starts last in Singapore: what Marina Bay gives from the back and when Antonelli can be champion
Russell will start from the back in Singapore after an engine change, 84 points behind Antonelli. Of 64 starts from the back at Marina Bay, only six scored, and no front-running car reached the podium. Antonelli can seal the title in Austin if he outscores him by 42 more, and would be the youngest champion ever at 20.
7 October 2026 · 5 min read
Both Aston Martins were the slowest on the straight in Baku: 311 km/h, 28 off the fastest
On the longest straight of the calendar, both Aston Martins were the slowest in second practice in Baku: 311 km/h at most, against 339 for Hadjar. We checked it against the official timing. The Formula 2 comparison going round social media holds up on the published figures, with a caveat, and first practice told a different story.
24 September 2026 · 5 min read
Baku is not the crash circuit, and since 2023 it barely breaks cars
Before the Grand Prix we counted retirements at the 23 circuits still on the calendar since 2016. Baku is the second that loses most cars (18.1%), but the place where drivers crash most is Singapore, and the one that breaks most is Melbourne with just 2.7% from contact. Plus a number nobody mentions: Baku had seven retirements in 2018 and exactly one in both 2024 and 2025.
22 September 2026 · 8 min read
2026 Madrid GP in numbers: Hamilton loses a 14 race streak and retirements double
The first Madrid Grand Prix ended with four cars stopped, and Stroll’s decided who won. We counted retirements against starts across the 22 seasons since 2005 using one rule: 2026 is running at 19.6% and jumped 8.9 points in a single year, the biggest rise in the whole series. Stroll has retired from 10 of 14 races, three drivers are still scoreless, and Antonelli leads with one retirement.
15 September 2026 · 6 min read
Three days at the Madring: faultless organisation, and the race that moved least all season
I spent three days at the first Madrid GP on a 325 euro pass. It took me one minute to leave the venue on Sunday and I never queued once, but from the stands it looked like nobody was overtaking. Back home I checked: Madrid moved 1.50 places per driver, the lowest of the year, and Monaco moved 2.6 times more. Which grandstand to pick, what food costs inside, and why general admission saw more than my paid seat.
15 September 2026 · 9 min read
The car is worth 5.4 places, the driver 3.2 and pole 2: why our simulator does not believe Gasly at Monza
Gasly takes his first pole and our 400 Italian GP simulations give him a 0% win chance and an average finish of P12.4. Rather than hide the number we opened it up: changing one thing at a time, the grid slot is worth 2 places, the car 5.4 and the driver 3.2. And we say where we think the model is wrong, because pole at Monza has won 47% of the time since 1988.
5 September 2026 · 6 min read
The F1 seats being decided for 2027, and why none of them can win a title
The contracts expiring in 2026, and what those seats are actually worth. We put every driver in all eleven cars: the three capable of fighting for a title are all taken, and the one that would move the market most is already signed until 2030.
26 August 2026 · 8 min read
Zandvoort said goodbye with Verstappen in the wall, and our model saw none of it
We published the odds on Friday: Russell 25%, Antonelli 20%, Norris 18.3%. The podium was those three in exactly reverse order, and Verstappen was gone on lap 1 of his last home race. An opinion piece on what a simulator can see, what it cannot, and why we publish the misses.
24 August 2026 · 6 min read
Aston Martin have fixed the chassis, not the engine, and Monza will prove it
Alonso started 18th at Zandvoort and finished 9th. The easy reading is that the team has woken up. But the two races where the new car has looked good are the two least power-dependent on the calendar, and Honda is carrying an 80 to 100 horsepower deficit. With the acid test written down before it is run.
24 August 2026 · 7 min read
Zandvoort’s last lap: F1 is back, and a corner says goodbye
F1 restarts its second half at Zandvoort, and it is the last time: the contract runs out and the track is gone from 2027. What the calendar loses, who inherits its banking, how a championship led by Antonelli arrives, and why the new regulations had this coming.
20 August 2026 · 6 min read