The 2026 season, numbers first
What is happening right now, told with the engine ahead of the opinion. The mechanism never changes to suit the result: the odds for each Grand Prix are published BEFORE it is run, and the contrast with the real result afterwards, hits and misses alike. A model that only shows its hits is not a model, it is advertising. The season readings that can lean on a measurement live here too: what new regulations do to the grid, what an engine upgrade is actually worth, and where the model got it wrong when it did. The running scoreboard for every prediction has its own page and grows on its own every other Sunday.
3 articles
Zandvoort said goodbye with Verstappen in the wall, and our model saw none of it
We published the odds on Friday: Russell 25%, Antonelli 20%, Norris 18.3%. The podium was those three in exactly reverse order, and Verstappen was gone on lap 1 of his last home race. An opinion piece on what a simulator can see, what it cannot, and why we publish the misses.
24 August 2026 · 6 min read
Aston Martin have fixed the chassis, not the engine, and Monza will prove it
Alonso started 18th at Zandvoort and finished 9th. The easy reading is that the team has woken up. But the two races where the new car has looked good are the two least power-dependent on the calendar, and Honda is carrying an 80 to 100 horsepower deficit. With the acid test written down before it is run.
24 August 2026 · 7 min read
Zandvoort’s last lap: F1 is back, and a corner says goodbye
F1 restarts its second half at Zandvoort, and it is the last time: the contract runs out and the track is gone from 2027. What the calendar loses, who inherits its banking, how a championship led by Antonelli arrives, and why the new regulations had this coming.
20 August 2026 · 6 min read