Russell starts last in Singapore: what Marina Bay gives from the back and when Antonelli can be champion
F1 Legend Sim · Staff · 7 October 2026 · 5 min read
George Russell will start from the back of the grid on Sunday in Singapore. Mercedes has to fit him a new engine after his failure at Sepang, and he had already used the four the rules allow for the whole year. The penalty applies to the Grand Prix, not to Saturday's sprint. He arrives 84 points behind his team-mate Kimi Antonelli, who can become champion at 20. Before the lights go out, we looked at the data for what Marina Bay has given those who start last and what Antonelli still needs to close out the title.
What Marina Bay gives those who start at the back
Sixteen Grands Prix have been run in Singapore since 2008. They had 64 starts from the last four places or from the pit lane, and only six finished in the points. Here they all are:
| Year | Driver | Car | Start | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 22nd of 22 | 5th |
| 2022 | Daniel Ricciardo | McLaren | 16th of 19 | 5th |
| 2023 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 17th of 19 | 7th |
| 2010 | Felipe Massa | Ferrari | 24th of 24 | 8th |
| 2017 | Lance Stroll | Williams | 18th of 20 | 8th |
| 2025 | Carlos Sainz | Williams | 18th of 20 | 10th |
The closest cases to Russell's are the two Ferrari rows: a front-running car starting last. Vettel finished fifth in 2016 and Massa eighth in 2010. Neither reached the podium. And there is a precedent Russell knows first-hand: in 2022 he started from the pit lane in Singapore, also with Mercedes, and finished fourteenth.
It is no accident. In our simulator, calibrated against the real races from 2014 to 2025, Marina Bay is the fifth circuit out of thirty where grid position matters most, behind only Monaco, Baku, Madring and Melbourne. What works in Russell's favour is that Singapore is also the circuit with the most crashes, as we found when we counted the retirements across the calendar, and every safety car bunches the field and gives him another chance. If you want the biggest comebacks ever, they are in the greatest comebacks in Formula 1.
The title maths
After Sepang, Antonelli has 320 points and Russell 236: an 84-point gap. Singapore hands out 33 at most, 8 in the sprint (the last of the year) and 25 in the race. After that come six Grands Prix with no sprint, so 150 points.
The first chance to settle it is Austin, on 25 October. To be champion there, Antonelli has to finish that race more than 125 points ahead, which is what the last five would still offer. In other words, he needs to outscore Russell by 42 points across Singapore and Austin, out of a possible 58. One example: if Antonelli wins on Sunday and Russell does not score from the back, that is 25 already; he would need 17 more between Saturday's sprint and Austin.
The youngest champion ever
If he does it, he will break the record by more than three years. The three youngest champions all sealed their title at the last race of the year, and these were their ages that day:
- Sebastian Vettel, 2010: 23 years and 134 days.
- Lewis Hamilton, 2008: 23 years and 300 days.
- Max Verstappen, 2021: 24 years and 73 days.
Antonelli was born on 25 August 2006. In Austin he will be 20 years and 61 days old, and even if he had to wait until Abu Dhabi on 6 December, he would be 20 years and 103 days. He is not even the youngest on the grid: that is Arvid Lindblad, the only rookie of 2026. Where such a young champion comes from is in his profile, and how a driver's performance changes with age, in this analysis.
What comes next
On Saturday, with the official grid out, we will simulate the Grand Prix and publish the preview, as we have for every race since July. That is where you will see what the model expects from Russell at the back. The result, on Monday, in the Grands Prix panel.