Baku is not the crash circuit, and since 2023 it barely breaks cars

Baku has a reputation as a demolition derby: walls inches away, a kilometre-long straight and that 2018 race with seven retirements. Ahead of the Grand Prix we counted retirements at every circuit still on the calendar since 2016, and the reputation only half holds up. Baku is the second that loses most cars, yes, but not through crashes: the place where drivers crash most is Singapore. And one circuit breaks considerably more than Baku with almost no accidents at all.

Who loses the most cars

These are the ten circuits on the current calendar with the most retirements per start, between 2016 and 2026. The last column separates what breaks from what crashes, which is where it gets interesting.

The average across the 23 current circuits is 14.6%. Baku sits at 18.1%, three and a half points above, and only Melbourne beats it. But look at the contact column: Baku is 6.0% and Melbourne 2.7%. Melbourne strands more cars than anywhere else on the calendar and does it with hardly anyone crashing: it breaks engines, not chassis.

The real crashing happens in Singapore

If what you are after is the crashing circuit, Baku is 4th, not first. Ahead of it sit Singapore, Silverstone and Monaco.

It makes sense and still catches you out: the three above are slow, narrow circuits where a mistake is paid into the wall at low speed and the car stays there. Baku has walls, but it also has two kilometres of straight where mistakes are paid in time rather than in bodywork.

And the number nobody mentions: Baku has calmed down

The whole legend comes from its early years. Here is the circuit year by year, and the trend leaves little room for doubt.

In 2018 7 cars out of 20 retired, 6 of them from contact. In the last three editions retirements have been 2, 1, 1. In 2025 a single car retired in the whole race, and none from an accident.

Two things explain the change, and neither is that drivers have turned cautious. The first is reliability: recent engines survive what they did not survive in 2017 and 2018, and that shows up at every circuit at once. The second is knowledge of the track: a brand new street layout punishes far more than one everybody has been driving for nine years.

What is still true

That it is hard to win. Across 9 editions there have been 7 different winners, and only 3 of those races were won by the driver starting first. It is one of the few places where pole is not half a win: across most of the calendar, starting at the front decides almost half the race, which we measured in how much pole is worth.

So the line that survives is not «something always happens in Baku», it is another one: in Baku the driver on pole usually does not win. If you want to try what would have happened with a different grid or a different car, that is built into What If?, and every race prediction with its checked accuracy is in the Grand Prix panel.