THE MODEL, ON THE RECORD
Every predictionand how it went
Before each Grand Prix we run it hundreds of times from the real starting grid and publish the odds. Afterwards we put the real classification next to them and count the damage. Nothing here is written after the fact — every figure is computed from the published predictions.
The favourite won 1 of 2 races. With this few races these numbers are an anecdote, not a track record — they are here because they grow on their own every other Sunday, and because publishing them before the race is the only version of this that means anything.
Race by race
| Grand Prix | We said | It was | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| GP de Países Bajos 2026Round 12 · Zandvoort | George Russell25.0% | Lando Norris ✗8/10 in the points | 2.2places |
| GP de Hungría 2026Round 11 · Hungaroring | Lando Norris22.7% | Lando Norris ✓8/10 in the points | 2.7places |
Where it gets it wrong
The biggest misses from every race so far. They are not spread evenly: the front of the grid is where the car decides, and the model is good at that. The mistakes pile up in the midfield, where strategy and judgement decide instead.
- Nico HulkenbergGP de Países Bajos 2026P15.7 → P87.7
- Nico HulkenbergGP de Hungría 2026P15.0 → P96.0
- Lance StrollGP de Hungría 2026P19.0 → P136.0
- Gabriel BortoletoGP de Hungría 2026P16.9 → P115.9
- Fernando AlonsoGP de Países Bajos 2026P13.2 → P94.2
- Carlos SainzGP de Hungría 2026P13.9 → P184.1