The F1 seats being decided for 2027, and why none of them can win a title
F1 Legend Sim · Staff · 26 August 2026 · 8 min read
Seven contracts expire at the end of 2026 and the market has been talking about little else. We put all 22 drivers in all 11 cars, 100 championships per cell, and out comes something nobody is saying: not one of the seven seats being decided this winter can fight for a title. The three that can are all taken and signed.
What is open and what is not
First the facts, which are not ours. According to PlanetF1’s contract round-up y Motor Sport Magazine’s tracker, these are the seven that expire:
- Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
- Isack Hadjar (Red Bull)
- Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)
- Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls)
- Oliver Bearman (Haas) · with doubts: his Haas deal is multi-year and may carry an option
- Esteban Ocon (Haas) · with doubts: his Haas deal is multi-year and may carry an option
- Franco Colapinto (Alpine)
And these are already settled for 2027: Verstappen (Red Bull, to 2030), Sainz (Williams, 2028), Gasly (Alpine, 2028), Stroll (Aston Martin), and Bortoleto and Hülkenberg at Audi. Alonso, at 45, has not said whether he continues, and his is the seat everyone is talking about.
What each seat is actually worth
This is where we can add something. We take the eleven 2026 cars and put each of the 22 drivers in every one of them, by swapping seats, and look at where they finish on average and how often they win the championship. That gives the real value of each seat, independently of who sits in it today.
| Seat | Avg. finish | Wins the title | Decided now? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | P5.12 | 20.8% | No |
| McLaren | P6.04 | 6.1% | No |
| Ferrari | P6.25 | 4.6% | No |
| Red Bull | P7.63 | 0.0% | Yes |
| Alpine | P9.87 | 0.0% | Yes |
| Racing Bulls | P9.89 | 0.0% | Yes |
| Haas | P12.61 | 0.0% | Yes |
| Williams | P13.64 | 0.0% | No |
| Audi | P14.06 | 0.0% | No |
| Aston Martin | P15.13 | 0.0% | Yes |
| Cadillac | P15.72 | 0.0% | No |
The three highlighted rows are the only cars in which any given driver wins a championship at all: Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari. And every one of them is a “No” in the last column.
In 7 of the eleven cars nobody wins the championship at all. Not unlikely: across 100 championships per cell, with all 22 drivers tried one by one, it does not happen once. Racing Bulls, Haas, Alpine and Aston Martin are among them, which is four of the five teams with a vacancy.
The fifth is Red Bull, and it deserves the caveat. A championship is won there, but only one and by only one driver: Verstappen, in 1% of his. No other of the 22 wins anything in that car, and the seat being decided this winter is not Verstappen’s.
The seven, one by one
For each of them: where they finish on average in their current car, and their ceiling if they moved to the best car on the grid.
| Driver | 2026 car | Their finish | Their ceiling | Best title % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | P10.37 | P2.64 | 20% |
| Isack Hadjar | Red Bull | P8.00 | P7.64 | 0% |
| Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | P9.31 | P7.00 | 0% |
| Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | P12.56 | P7.07 | 0% |
| Oliver Bearman | Haas | P15.21 | P7.01 | 0% |
| Esteban Ocon | Haas | P14.98 | P6.99 | 0% |
| Franco Colapinto | Alpine | P12.56 | P7.09 | 0% |
Six of the seven have a zero in the last column, and it is not a zero for their team: it is the best they manage in any of the eleven cars. It does not matter where they sign. With the 2026 grid, none of those six wins a championship anywhere.
Alonso is the exception, and it is worth reading in full
The only one of the seven with a non-zero cell is Alonso, and by some distance. In the Aston Martin he averages P10.37 and wins none of the 100 championships. In the best car on the grid he averages P2.64 and takes the title 20% of the time.
That is nearly eight places for a change of car, and it explains why his decision is the one being discussed despite his being 45. What the number does not say is that he is going anywhere: he shut down the Alpine rumour himself with “I do have a contract, so I am not moving”. What it says is what would be at stake if he ever did.
The contrast with his team-mate sharpens it. In that same Aston Martin, Stroll averages P19.09. The gap between the two, in identical machinery, is 8.7 places.
And the contract that would move the market most is already signed
Here is what the numbers really produce. The seat whose occupant would change the championship is none of the seven: it is Verstappen’s, and he is under contract until 2030.
In his own Red Bull he averages P5.72 and wins the title in 1% of championships. In the best car on the grid he averages P1.03 and wins 97%. It is the largest gap on the entire grid, and not narrowly.
His deal is reported to carry performance clauses that would make an exit possible. That detail, and not the seven open seats, is the only thing in the 2027 market that would change who fights for the championship.
What this does not say
- The cars are the 2026 ones. We do not know what the 2027 Aston Martin or Red Bull will be, and a year moves them a long way. This measures seats with today’s machinery, which is the only thing measurable.
- This is not a transfer prediction. We are not saying who will sign where. We measure what would change if they did, which is a different question and the only one a simulator can answer. We go into it in the five seasons this simulator cannot explain.
- Two of the seven are doubtful. Bearman’s and Ocon’s Haas deals are multi-year and may carry an option, according to the source itself. If they do not expire, five seats are being decided and the conclusion is unchanged.