ROUND_18 · CIRCUIT OF THE AMERICAS
US Grand Prix 2026simulated 400 times
We ran the race 400 times through our engine, starting from the real qualifying grid. This is what came out.
Leer en españolFavourite
Kimi Antonelli 37.5%
Wins 37.5% of the simulations and finishes on the podium in 73.5%. Starts P1.
Driver by driver
| Grid | Driver | Win | Podium | Avg. finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Kimi Antonelli | 37.5% | 73.5% | P3.1 |
| P2 | Max Verstappen | 15.3% | 52.3% | P4.5 |
| P3 | Isack Hadjar | 0.3% | 2% | P7.9 |
| P4 | Charles Leclerc | 11% | 40% | P4.7 |
| P5 | Lewis Hamilton | 10.3% | 38.5% | P4.6 |
| P6 | George Russell | 12.3% | 38.8% | P4.4 |
| P7 | Oscar Piastri | 8.8% | 31% | P5 |
| P8 | Lando Norris | 4.8% | 24% | P5.3 |
| P9 | Liam Lawson | 0% | 0% | P10.9 |
| P10 | Pierre Gasly | 0% | 0% | P12 |
| P11 | Nico Hulkenberg | 0% | 0% | P14.2 |
| P12 | Fernando Alonso | 0% | 0% | P12.2 |
| P13 | Oliver Bearman | 0% | 0% | P13.9 |
| P14 | Arvid Lindblad | 0% | 0% | P13.3 |
| P15 | Esteban Ocon | 0% | 0% | P15.3 |
| P16 | Lance Stroll | 0% | 0% | P18.3 |
| P17 | Carlos Sainz | 0% | 0% | P14.1 |
| P18 | Alexander Albon | 0% | 0% | P16.6 |
| P19 | Sergio Perez | 0% | 0% | P18.1 |
| P20 | Valtteri Bottas | 0% | 0% | P18.8 |
| P21 | Franco Colapinto | 0% | 0% | P16.1 |
| P22 | Gabriel Bortoleto | 0% | 0% | P18.5 |
Opinion · our reading
Antonelli starts on pole and wins one race in three, and the model does not believe Hadjar's third place
The starting column is the official GRID, with the penalties applied to the qualifying order. All three are for exceeding the quota of power unit elements: Arvid Lindblad qualified ninth and starts fourteenth (five places), Franco Colapinto qualified fourteenth and starts twenty-first (ten) and Gabriel Bortoleto qualified thirteenth and starts last (eighty). Everyone behind them moves up.
Kimi Antonelli has pole and the model gives him a 37.5% chance of winning and 73.5% of a podium. That is a lot, but less than pole is usually worth: since 2012 the polesitter has won 53% of races, and only 46% in Austin, the circuit where pole is least likely to survive the first lap, as we showed in this week's article. Behind him, four cars almost level: Max Verstappen (15.3%), George Russell (12.3%, from sixth), Charles Leclerc (11%) and Lewis Hamilton (10.3%). Nobody starting from ninth back wins a single time in 400 races.
What we will be watching most on Monday is Isack Hadjar. He starts third, alongside Verstappen, and the model drops him to an average of P7.9 with a 2% podium chance: both Ferraris, both McLarens and Russell get past. That is the engine's reading of the second Red Bull: Hadjar arrives with 97 points to Verstappen's 221 in the same car, and a qualifying like this is exactly what could prove it wrong. If Hadjar finishes on the podium, the model will have got him wrong, and we will say so.
How the model works
The engine accounts for how much starting at the front is worth at each circuit, and nowhere is it worth as much as at Monaco. Since the 2026 Azerbaijan GP that weight is calibrated track by track against the real races from 2014 to 2025; earlier previews ran on a simpler formula that derived it from how easy it is to overtake on each layout. Which is why Kimi Antonelli comes out favourite at 37.5% without having the fastest car of the season.
A favourite who only wins one race in four is not a broken model: that is what a real Grand Prix looks like. A retirement, a safety car at the wrong moment or a slow stop flips the result, and the engine simulates all of them. That is why 6 drivers have a genuine shot rather than a single name circled in red.
The most interesting column is the average finish: Franco Colapinto starts P21 and averages P16.1, the biggest gain on the grid: the driver the model thinks is most underrated by where he qualified.
The numbers come from 400 full race simulations (56 laps) with car and driver ratings updated to this point of the season. This is not betting advice and not an official prediction: it is what our model said. Tomorrow anyone can check whether it was right.