ROUND_11 · HUNGARORING

Hungarian GP 2026simulated 300 times

We ran the race 300 times through our engine, starting from the real qualifying grid. This is what came out.

Favourite

Lando Norris 22.7%

Wins 22.7% of the simulations and finishes on the podium in 53.7%. Starts P1.

Driver by driver

Grid	Driver	Team	Win	Podium	Points	DNF	Avg. finish
P1	Lando Norris	McLaren	22.7%	53.7%	96%	4%	P4
P2	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	18.7%	47%	95.7%	4.3%	P4.4
P3	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	14%	47%	95.7%	4.3%	P4.6
P4	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	6%	28.7%	95.7%	4.3%	P5.3
P5	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	11%	38.7%	97.3%	2.7%	P4.7
P6	George Russell	Mercedes	14.3%	44.7%	97%	3%	P4.3
P7	Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	13.3%	39.7%	97.3%	2.7%	P4.3
P8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	0%	0.7%	94.3%	3%	P8.2
P9	Arvid Lindblad	Racing Bulls	0%	0%	29%	1.7%	P13
P10	Nico Hulkenberg	Audi	0%	0%	13.3%	2.7%	P15
P11	Liam Lawson	Racing Bulls	0%	0%	52%	5.3%	P11.5
P12	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	0%	0%	27.7%	2.7%	P13
P13	Franco Colapinto	Alpine	0%	0%	21%	5.7%	P13.9
P14	Gabriel Bortoleto	Audi	0%	0%	3.3%	6%	P16.9
P15	Esteban Ocon	Haas	0%	0%	14%	2.7%	P14.8
P16	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	0%	0%	31.7%	3.3%	P12.6
P17	Oliver Bearman	Haas	0%	0%	9%	3%	P15.6
P18	Carlos Sainz	Williams	0%	0%	18.3%	5.3%	P13.9
P19	Alexander Albon	Williams	0%	0%	9%	4%	P15.7
P20	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	0%	0%	0.3%	5%	P19
P21	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac	0%	0%	1.3%	7.7%	P18.9
P22	Sergio Perez	Cadillac	0%	0%	1%	6.3%	P18

How the model works

Track position is weighted by how hard it is to overtake at each circuit, so pole is worth a lot at the Hungaroring and very little at Monza. On a tight, twisty track where passing is brutal, starting at the front is half the job — which is why Lando Norris comes out favourite at 22.7% without having the fastest car of the season.

A favourite who only wins one race in four is not a broken model: that is what a real Grand Prix looks like. A retirement, a safety car at the wrong moment or a slow stop flips the result, and the engine simulates all of them. That is why 7 drivers have a genuine shot rather than a single name circled in red.

The most interesting column is the average finish: Carlos Sainz starts P18 and averages P13.9, the biggest gain on the grid — the driver the model thinks is most underrated by where he qualified.

The numbers come from 300 full race simulations (70 laps) with car and driver ratings updated to this point of the season. This is not betting advice and not an official prediction: it is what our model says, and tomorrow anyone can check whether it was right.

Your turn

Predict the GP →

Order your own top 10 and see how close you get.

Rewrite history

What If? →

Put any driver in any car, any season, and run it.