ROUND_15 · BAKU CITY CIRCUIT

Azerbaijan GP 2026simulated 400 times

We ran the race 400 times through our engine, starting from the real qualifying grid. This is what came out.

Favourite

George Russell 48.3%

Wins 48.3% of the simulations and finishes on the podium in 89%. Starts P1.

Driver by driver

Grid	Driver	Team	Win	Podium	Points	DNF	Avg. finish
P1	George Russell	Mercedes	48.3%	89%	98.3%	1.8%	P2.2
P2	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	22%	72.3%	95%	5%	P3.5
P3	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	19%	64.3%	95.3%	4.8%	P3.7
P4	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	0%	1.8%	97%	3%	P7.2
P5	Lando Norris	McLaren	7%	40.8%	97%	3%	P4.2
P6	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	3.5%	25.8%	97.5%	2.5%	P4.7
P7	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	0%	0%	68%	4.5%	P10.3
P8	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	0.3%	6.3%	98.3%	1.8%	P5.9
P9	Franco Colapinto	Alpine	0%	0%	45.8%	3.8%	P11.4
P10	Oliver Bearman	Haas	0%	0%	27%	4%	P12.4
P11	Liam Lawson	Racing Bulls	0%	0%	49.8%	3.5%	P11.1
P12	Alexander Albon	Williams	0%	0%	9.5%	4%	P13.8
P13	Esteban Ocon	Haas	0%	0%	9.3%	3.5%	P14.3
P14	Carlos Sainz	Williams	0%	0%	8.3%	3.3%	P13.8
P15	Arvid Lindblad	Racing Bulls	0%	0%	8.3%	4.3%	P14.4
P16	Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	0%	0%	94.5%	5.3%	P8.1
P17	Gabriel Bortoleto	Audi	0%	0%	0%	4.5%	P17.6
P18	Nico Hulkenberg	Audi	0%	0%	1.3%	4%	P17.3
P19	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac	0%	0%	0%	4%	P19.1
P20	Sergio Perez	Cadillac	0%	0%	0.3%	4%	P19.2
P21	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	0%	0%	0%	4%	P17.3
P22	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	0%	0%	0%	2.8%	P20.4

How the model works

The engine accounts for how much starting at the front is worth at each circuit, and nowhere is it worth as much as at Monaco. Since the 2026 Azerbaijan GP that weight is calibrated track by track against the real races from 2014 to 2025; earlier previews ran on a simpler formula that derived it from how easy it is to overtake on each layout. Which is why George Russell comes out favourite at 48.3% without having the fastest car of the season.

A favourite who only wins one race in four is not a broken model: that is what a real Grand Prix looks like. A retirement, a safety car at the wrong moment or a slow stop flips the result, and the engine simulates all of them. That is why 4 drivers have a genuine shot rather than a single name circled in red.

The most interesting column is the average finish: Kimi Antonelli starts P16 and averages P8.1, the biggest gain on the grid: the driver the model thinks is most underrated by where he qualified.

The numbers come from 400 full race simulations (51 laps) with car and driver ratings updated to this point of the season. This is not betting advice and not an official prediction: it is what our model said. Tomorrow anyone can check whether it was right.

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